- El precio del petróleo sube un 5,17% después de que Biden admitiera un posible ataque a las instalaciones petrolíferas de Irán.
- Irán es el séptimo mayor productor de petróleo del mundo, con una producción de 4 millones de barriles diarios.
- Un conflicto en el estrecho de Ormuz podría interrumpir el 25% del suministro mundial de petróleo.
El precio del petróleo ha experimentado un fuerte aumento tras las recientes declaraciones del presidente estadounidense, Joe Biden, quien admitió la posibilidad de que Israel ataque las instalaciones petrolíferas de Irán. El Brent europeo subió un 5,17%, alcanzando los 77,72 dólares por barril, mientras que el West Texas Intermediate subió un 5,35%, hasta los 73,85 dólares. Este incremento está relacionado con el creciente riesgo de escalada bélica en Oriente Medio, tras el ataque con misiles balísticos de Irán el pasado martes.
Irán y el impacto de un posible ataque en la industria petrolera
Irán es el séptimo mayor productor de petróleo en el mundo, con una capacidad de producción cercana a los 4 millones de barriles diarios, representando alrededor del 4% de la producción mundial. Las plantas de refino más grandes del país, ubicadas en Isfahan, Abadán y Bandar Abbas, tienen una capacidad de refino superior a los 300.000 barriles diarios. Si Israel lleva a cabo un ataque sobre estas instalaciones, las consecuencias para el mercado global del petróleo serían significativas.
Además, un conflicto en el estrecho de Ormuz, por donde pasa el 25% del petróleo mundial, podría llevar a una interrupción en el suministro de crudo a nivel mundial, con un posible impacto devastador en los mercados energéticos.
Consecuencias económicas globales
La escalada del conflicto en Oriente Medio podría tener serias implicaciones para la política monetaria mundial. La reciente caída de los precios de la energía ha ayudado a controlar la inflación en varias economías, pero un aumento continuo en los precios del petróleo podría reavivar las presiones inflacionarias y frenar las expectativas de recorte de tipos de interés por parte de los bancos centrales. El escenario más preocupante sería una escalada total en la región, lo que podría llevar al Brent a subir entre 90 y 100 dólares por barril.
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