- La escalada bélica en Oriente Próximo provoca una caída del 1,72% en el Ibex 35, afectando especialmente a los bancos.
- Los precios del petróleo suben un 4,2%, con el barril de Brent alcanzando los 74 dólares, mientras que el West Texas sube a 71 dólares.
- Los insiders en bancos como Santander y BBVA no muestran movimientos significativos en el último año, reflejando una postura conservadora.
El último trimestre del año ha comenzado con fuertes caídas en los mercados europeos, y el Ibex 35 ha sido el índice más afectado con una pérdida del 1,72%, cerrando en 11.673,50 puntos.
Este retroceso ha sido impulsado por la presión sobre los bancos, debido a las crecientes tensiones en Oriente Próximo y el temor a un cambio en la política monetaria del Banco Central Europeo (BCE).
El conflicto entre Irán e Israel ha generado incertidumbre global, lo que ha afectado la estabilidad de los mercados, y los inversores están reaccionando con ventas masivas.
Impacto en la banca: caídas generalizadas
El sector bancario ha sido el más castigado dentro del Ibex. El temor a que el BCE acelere los recortes de tipos tras la caída de la inflación de la eurozona, que descendió del 2,2% al 1,8% en septiembre, ha pesado mucho en el sentimiento del mercado.
Banco Sabadell se ha desplomado un 6,52%, seguido de Unicaja, que perdió un 6,38%. Otros bancos, como CaixaBank y Bankinter, cayeron un 5,37% y un 4,77%, respectivamente.
Las dos mayores entidades bancarias españolas, Santander y BBVA, también registraron importantes caídas, con descensos del 4,88% y 4,20%.
Esta caída generalizada en la banca es reflejo del miedo de los inversores a que las futuras políticas monetarias del BCE afecten los márgenes de beneficio del sector.
La posibilidad de recortes más agresivos en los tipos de interés a medida que la inflación sigue bajando ha generado una oleada de ventas.
Precio del petróleo en alza
El conflicto en Oriente Próximo ha generado un aumento en los precios del petróleo. El barril de Brent ha subido un 4,2%, pasando de 71 a 74 dólares en apenas unos días.
El West Texas, de referencia en Estados Unidos, también ha subido hasta 71 dólares. Este incremento en el precio del crudo afecta de manera negativa a sectores como el de las aerolíneas, siendo IAG una de las más perjudicadas con una caída del 4,98%.
En contraste, empresas del sector energético como Repsol han aprovechado este repunte en el precio del petróleo, registrando un incremento del 0,80%. Por otro lado, las utilities han mostrado una leve mejora, con empresas como Naturgy subiendo un 1,12%, impulsadas por las rebajas en los costes de financiación.
Perspectivas de tipos de interés y movimientos de la Fed
En el frente de política monetaria, Jerome Powell, presidente de la Reserva Federal de EE.UU., ha señalado que la Fed no tiene prisa por reducir agresivamente los tipos de interés.
Este mensaje ha traído cierta calma a los mercados estadounidenses, pero en Europa, el BCE podría seguir un camino diferente, dada la caída de la inflación. El IPC de la eurozona se situó en 1,8%, lo que, aunque en línea con las expectativas, refuerza la posibilidad de más recortes de tipos.
Este escenario también ha afectado a los insiders de grandes bancos europeos y españoles. En el último año, las compras o ventas de acciones por parte de los ejecutivos de bancos como Santander y BBVA han sido limitadas, lo que refleja un enfoque conservador.
Evolución de otros mercados europeos
La tendencia bajista no solo afectó al Ibex, sino también a otros grandes índices europeos.
El Dax alemán retrocedió un 0,58%, mientras que el Cac francés cayó un 0,81% y el Mib italiano perdió un 0,48%. Sin embargo, el Ftse británico fue la excepción, cerrando con una subida del 0,48% debido al impulso de las empresas relacionadas con las materias primas y el petróleo.
En cuanto al mercado de bonos, las tensiones geopolíticas han impulsado a los inversores hacia activos refugio, como la deuda soberana.
El interés del bono alemán a 10 años ha caído hasta el 2%, mientras que el bono español se sitúa en torno al 2,80%. Asimismo, el oro, otro activo refugio, ha alcanzado los 2.680 dólares por onza, acercándose a sus máximos históricos.
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