- Según Coinbase, más de 1.700 millones de personas en el mundo no tienen acceso a servicios bancarios tradicionales.
- Las transferencias de dinero transfronterizas con bitcoin suelen ser más económicas que las remesas tradicionales.
- La industria de criptomonedas y blockchain ha generado más de 12.000 empleos directos en el sector financiero.
El bitcoin ha finalizado septiembre con una cotización de 63.785,09 dólares, quedando un 12,8% por debajo de su máximo histórico. A pesar de este margen, ha registrado un sólido repunte del 8,19% en comparación con el mes anterior, destacándose como su segundo mejor septiembre desde su creación.
Este desempeño se ha visto impulsado por factores macroeconómicos clave, como la reducción de tipos de interés en Estados Unidos y las medidas de estímulo económico en China, que han inyectado optimismo tanto en los mercados tradicionales como en los activos digitales.
Contexto global favorable impulsa el bitcoin
El recorte en las tasas de interés, junto con un paquete de estímulos económicos en China, ha reanimado no solo a los mercados bursátiles globales, sino también a las criptomonedas. El gigante asiático ha implementado varias estrategias, desde la reducción de tasas hasta incentivos para la recompra de acciones, lo que ha creado un entorno positivo para los activos de riesgo, incluido el bitcoin.
Javier Molina, analista de eToro, señala que el desempeño de septiembre ha desafiado la tendencia histórica de este mes, que normalmente ha sido negativo para el bitcoin. Entre 2013 y 2024, la criptomoneda registró un rendimiento promedio negativo del -4,89% en septiembre, un patrón que cambió este año. En contraste, el último trimestre del año, especialmente diciembre, ha mostrado históricamente un retorno promedio del 88,84%.
Un repunte inesperado tras el ajuste de los tipos de interés
Uno de los factores clave detrás del buen rendimiento de bitcoin en septiembre ha sido la política monetaria de Estados Unidos. La rebaja de 0,5 puntos básicos en los tipos de interés, colocándolos entre el 4,75% y el 5%, ha generado un entorno favorable para las inversiones en activos de riesgo, incluidos los criptoactivos. Desde que Jerome Powell, presidente de la Reserva Federal, anunció este cambio, el bitcoin ha registrado un repunte del 6,2%.
Este movimiento de la Fed ha influido en el comportamiento de los mercados, con índices como el Nasdaq alcanzando máximos y contribuyendo a la entrada de nuevos flujos de inversión hacia el bitcoin. Si bien el activo digital aún no ha superado su máximo histórico, muchos expertos ven potencial para que lo logre antes de finalizar el año.
El halving de 2024 factor clave en la valoración de bitcoin
Otro aspecto fundamental que ha influido en el repunte del bitcoin es el halving que tuvo lugar en abril de 2024. Este evento, que reduce a la mitad las recompensas para los mineros, disminuyó la oferta a 3.125 bitcoins por bloque, lo que históricamente ha generado una presión alcista sobre el precio de la criptomoneda.
Dovile Silenskyte directora de investigación de activos digitales en Wisdom Tree, explica que la demanda institucional está aumentando, especialmente a través de instrumentos regulados como los ETF en USA. Lo que refuerza el impacto positivo del halving en el precio.
¿Rumbo a los 100.000 dólares?
El debate sobre si el bitcoin alcanzará nuevos máximos históricos sigue abierto. Javier Molina estima que la próxima resistencia se encuentra alrededor de los 67.000 dólares, un nivel clave que podría definir los movimientos futuros del activo. Sin embargo, no todos los expertos son optimistas. Mientras que algunos consideran que el bitcoin aún no está preparado para romper su récord otros, como Jorge Soriano de Criptán, creen que si las condiciones macroeconómicas continúan favorables, el bitcoin podría alcanzar los 100.000 dólares tras las elecciones en USA especialmente si el ganador es un defensor de las criptomonedas.Román González, gestor de criptomonedas en A&G, también respalda esta visión optimista, afirmando que el bitcoin sigue siendo un activo subestimado por la mayoría de los inversores
Aquí las gráficas que representan la evolución del precio del bitcoin, su comparación con otros activos S&P 500 y Nasdaq la evolución de las inversiones institucionales en bitcoin entre 2018 y 2023
Comparación con otros activos 2018-2023 presenta compara la evolución del bitcoin con el oro, S&P 500 y Nasdaq. Se puede observar que, aunque estos activos también crecieron, el bitcoin mostró un crecimiento exponencial mucho mayor.
En resumen, aunque el bitcoin sigue enfrentando desafíos, los factores macroeconómicos y la creciente demanda institucional podrían empujarlo hacia nuevos máximos antes de finalizar el año.
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